Monday, April 13, 2009

KENYA ON THE CROSS

Kenya’s grand coalition government this week marks exactly one year since its members were sworn in and took office. On the 13th of April 13, 2009, President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga announced the list of 40 minister and 52 assistants than would form Africa’s first ever grand coalition government. A year down the line that government remains on the rocks in spite of the apparent cessation of hostilities between the coalition partners. Recent events increasingly raising doubts on the coalition’s ability to hold through the next 3 years to the 2012 elections.
After a week of heavy fire from across the political divide, following the collapse of the coalition talks in Kilaguni last weekend, a deceptive calm has seemingly set in, in spite of the fact that the outstanding issues that led to last weeks crisis remain unresolved. The calm is largely attributed to the intervention by former un secretary general Kofi Annan who reportedly called both President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, with an appeal to them to remember their responsibility to the Kenyan public.
Rail and Kibaki are expected to hold their first face to face, since the collapsed Kilaguni talks later this week. Questions linger however on how effective that meeting will be in resolving the issues dogging the coalition government. Raila had in an outpouring of outrage over the week accused his colleague at the coalition’s helm of not only being disrespectful but also running the government in a primitive and less than professional manner. Will he face Kibaki with these allegations? If he does what will be Kibaki’s response? Any Kenyan would be shocked if he heard that Kibaki apologized and promised to be better behaved next time? President Kibaki on the other hand, went on business as usual, as far as he is concerned there is no crisis, he actually went out the country in the wake of stalemate? What will it take to awake him to the fact that he is running a government that is at least 50% extremely disgruntled.
Indeed from where I stand, I do not see an end to the wrangling within the grand coalition government soon regardless of the current lull. For starters, it is unlikely that Kibaki and his backers would cave to Raila and ODM’s demand for greater inclusion in the running of the grand coalition, and even if he did that would not be the end of ODM's discontent. What difference would it make if for example by the end of the week, Raila’s salary is matched to that of the President and government protocol is officially revised to recognize him as second in command, the head of public service and its holder are moved to the Prime minister Office, and ODM is allowed to appoint half of the countries permanent secretaries, ambassadors and parastal chiefs? I doubt that they would go round the country rejoicing over their inclusion eventually. If they did so they would be giving up their tactical advantage and fully sharing with their PNU side, the full baggage of the unpopularity that comes with being the face of government. Indeed in that one week of protests against Kibaki and PNU, Raila has managed to win some public sympathy as the victim in this setting and in the same blow, distracted the masses from the pressing issues of poverty , hunger, inflation ….etc that the country is looking up to the government to fix. My guess is for as long as the coalition government exists, one side will always play victim and paint the other villain for political advantage. That is however not to say that ODM’s protests are completely without merit.
However thanks to international pressure and the lack of operational transitional institutions like the electoral commission, the two sides will remain in the coalition albeit as unhappy partners in a failed marriage. I am however not convinced that the endurance will spread through to 2012, the prevalent political re-alignments are in my view indications of preparations for an early election, most likely before the end of next year. Soon the electoral commission issue will be dispensed off as soon as parliament is recalled. The constitution review process is already underway, although the committee of experts appointed to spear head the process has been almost invisible, the experts have been working quietly in the background and are reportedly making progress in spite of numerous challenges like the governments failure to provide them with offices. It is my belief that this process will soon gain more visibility and political contributions that will clearly expose the underlying mechanizations in preparation for elections. Should this group deliver a new law; the stage will be set for the polls. Should they fail, this will only give fresh momentum to calls for an election. The argument being that only a democratically elected government can deliver a new constitution.
Gichugu MP Martha Karua’s dramatic resignation from the cabinet further gives credence to the view that early polls may be in the offing. Skeptics have argues that she lacks both the financial resources and political networks to sustain a campaign over the next 3 years. She probably knows that she does not need to survive the three years. She will be one to watch and my bet is that she will throw in her all over the next one year as it may just be a make or break for her.
Religious leaders both Christian and Muslim are also on record advocating for a fresh election as a solution to the failed grand coalition experiment. While their arguments may hold some water, questions linger on if the country is really ready for the polls. Ethnic suspicions still run deep and the people are still vulnerable to political manipulation that would lead the country to yet another crisis. Kenyans are also disillusioned with the current crop of leaders. An early election may just mean choosing between two evil sides. Waiting until 2012 may provide an opportunity for new options. What is better for the country, enduring a poorly performing disjointed government for the next 3 years with the hope that circumstances will have changed by 2012 or bite the bullet and risk all at an early election. Whatever the options, Kenya is in a dilemma and the way forward looks increasingly hazy. Kenya has just come to the fork of the cross – which way Kenya?

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